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Will US retail sales rebound reverse US dollar losses?

business-articlesWill US retail sales rebound reverse US dollar losses?
  • US dollar appeal limited after jobs data
  • Higher levels of economic activity could boost New Zealand dollar
  • Brexit-based uncertainty keeps pound under pressure
US dollar looks for boost on retail sales data
After Friday’s disappointing jobs data the mood towards the US dollar has soured, even as the unemployment rate improved.
A rallying point could be in store for USD exchange rates this afternoon, however, if January’s US retail sales data rebounds as forecast.
Signs of improved consumer confidence could encourage investors to pile back into the US dollar, with higher levels of spending likely to bolster economic growth.
On the other hand, another month of falling sales would leave USD exchange rates exposed to fresh selling pressure.
Signs of economic resilience may support New Zealand dollar
Confidence in the New Zealand dollar may strengthen tonight if the latest ANZ truckometer points towards higher levels of economic activity.
Higher volumes of traffic would bode well for the outlook of the New Zealand economy, suggesting that the impact of slowing global growth is proving limited.
Any evidence of a slowdown in domestic growth, though, could see NZD exchange rates slump sharply overnight.
A diminished sense of market risk appetite may also limit the appeal of the New Zealand dollar in the near term.
Pound still limited by Brexit uncertainty
Brexit-based uncertainty looks set to keep the pound under pressure for the foreseeable future, barring any major breakthrough.
With less than a month left before the Brexit deadline investors still lack clarity over the likely shape of the UK’s future trading relationships.
Anticipation ahead of the long-awaited ‘meaningful’ parliamentary vote is also likely to limit the upside potential of GBP exchange rates.
Ahead of tomorrow’s UK trade and production data the strength of the pound is unlikely to recover significantly.
Upcoming Data:
Monday, 11th March 2019
12:30 USD Retail Sales
21:00 NZD ANZ Truckometer
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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