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Manufacturing sector slowdown may drive further pound losses

business-articlesManufacturing sector slowdown may drive further pound losses
  • Slowing UK manufacturing sector to weigh on pound
  • Eurozone inflation uptick could boost euro
  • Canadian dollar losses likely on weaker gross domestic product

Pound vulnerable to weaker UK manufacturing PMI
The appeal of the pound could diminish further this morning if the UK manufacturing PMI eases as forecast.
Investors anticipate the index easing from 52.8 to 52.0 in February, demonstrating a continued loss of momentum within the manufacturing sector.
Further evidence of the UK economy slowing during the first quarter in the face of Brexit-based uncertainty would keep GBP exchange rates on a weaker footing.
On the other hand, any signs of improvement on the month could help the pound to limit some of its recent losses.
Euro looks for boost on rising Eurozone inflation
EUR exchange rates may gain a solid boost on the back of the latest Eurozone consumer price index data today.
As the headline inflation rate is forecast to accelerate from 1.4% to 1.5% on the year this could encourage the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a less dovish policy outlook.
While inflation of 1.5% would still fall short of the ECB’s 2% target rate an uptick may be enough to reduce the odds of the central bank loosening monetary policy in the near future.
If the inflation rate fails to pick up, though, the euro could suffer a fresh slump against its rivals.
Slowing Canadian growth to dent Canadian dollar
Demand for the Canadian dollar is unlikely to strengthen this afternoon as markets brace for underwhelming gross domestic product data.
Forecasts point towards growth easing from 1.7% to 1.4% on the year in December, offering fresh evidence of an economic slowdown.
With confidence in the outlook of the Canadian economy already limited a weak showing here could weigh heavily on CAD exchange rates.
Unless the economy demonstrates signs of robustness the mood towards the Canadian dollar looks set to sour further ahead of the weekend.
Upcoming Data:
Friday, 1st March 2019
09:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index
13:30 CAD Gross Domestic Product
13:30 USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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