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German business confidence to pile more pressure on euro?

business-articlesGerman business confidence to pile more pressure on euro?
  • Brexit discussions likely to cause further movement in pound exchange rates

  • Will falling German business climate see the euro slip further?

  • High durable goods orders could push up the US dollar

Will Brexit talks continue to cause Sterling to fluctuate?

With very little economic data for the UK, the focus on Thursday remained on the continuation of Brexit discussions, with EU Chief Negotiator, Michel Barnier warning the UK will face a no-deal Brexit if it fails to make any ‘positive proposals’.

It seems likely that movement in the British currency will also see movement today as Brexit discussions continue, and any comments suggesting the UK will extend Article 50 to delay departure from the EU or signs of a no-deal Brexit is reduced will likely aid Sterling. 

Falling German business climate likely to see euro slip

Yesterday data revealed that the business activity in the Eurozone had stalled to a five and a half year low in January as the economy edged closer to stagnation. The European Central Bank (ECB) also kept interest rates unchanged at 0%, with Mario Draghi reaffirming the bank’s stance to keep interest rates at their current levels through the summer of 2019 and ‘longer, if necessary’ which saw euro sentiment slip.

This morning will see the releases of Germany’s IFO business climate, expectations, and current assessment for January. The euro could slide further if these figures all fall as forecast.

Strong US durable goods orders could push up US dollar

US jobless claims fell to a 49-year low figures revealed, the lowest levels since November 1969, showing that the US job market remains strong despite the ongoing US government shutdown.

This afternoon the US durable goods orders for December will be released, and if this figure is high it could see the ‘Greenback’ rally as the figure serves as an excellent way to gauge forecast of US output in the future.

Upcoming Data:

Friday 25th, January 2019
09:00     EUR German IFO Business Climate (Jan)
09:00     EUR German IFO Expectations (Jan)
09:00     EUR German IFO Current Assessment (Jan)
13:30     USD Durable Goods Orders (Dec)


Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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