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Could Eurozone trade data drag euro down?

business-articlesCould Eurozone trade data drag euro down?
  • Euro losses forecast on weaker Eurozone trade
  • US dollar under pressure after disappointing production data
  • Rising consumer confidence to shore up New Zealand dollar
 
 
Weak Eurozone trade balance set to dent euro
 
EUR exchange rates may come under renewed pressure this morning if January’s Eurozone trade balance weakens as forecast.
 
Investors expect to see the trade balance slide into a state of deficit, falling from 17 billion to -8 billion on the month.
 
Any deterioration of trade conditions could weigh heavily on the euro, with the global trade outlook looking set to remain muted for some time to come.
 
If the figure surprises to the upside, though, this may encourage EUR exchange rates to make fresh gains across the board.
 
 
US dollar poised to rally on stronger housing market
 
After Friday’s underwhelming US production data the US dollar is looking for a rallying point on the back of this afternoon’s NAHB housing market index.
 
Signs of resilience from the US housing market would give investors reason to buy into the US dollar once again, suggesting that the economic slowdown is still limited.
 
On the other hand, another underwhelming figure may drive USD exchange rates down further as worries over the US outlook persist.
 
Any decline in market risk appetite could help to shore up the US dollar, meanwhile.
 
 
Improved consumer confidence to offer New Zealand dollar boost
 
Tonight’s Westpac consumer confidence index could encourage the New Zealand dollar to push higher against its rivals.
 
Forecasts point towards a solid uptick in confidence during the first quarter, encouraging bets that the consumer spending and activity may pick up in the near term.
 
While worries over the health of the New Zealand economy persist signs of a positive consumer outlook may give NZD exchange rates a boost.
 
However, if sentiment fails to improve on the quarter the mood towards the New Zealand dollar could sour once again.
 
 
Upcoming Data:
 
Monday, 18th March 2019
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index
20:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
 
Philip McHugh

Philip McHugh

Joining the corporate trading desk in 2007, Phil now over sees all of Currencies Direct’s corporate dealing activity. Having gained experience working with hundreds of businesses to optimise international payments processes and execute comprehensive risk management strategies, Phil currently works with a portfolio of corporate clients whilst managing Currencies Direct’s overall market exposure

Phil has FCA approval and has completed the Certificate in International Treasury Management (CertiTM)

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